Transcript:
The Inside Story: USA Votes 2024: Swing States
Episode 167 – October 24, 2024
Show Open:
Unidentified Narrator:
This week on The Inside Story:
We’re just days away from a course-setting U.S. presidential election.
Join us as we travel to the swing states that will ultimately decide who becomes America’s 47TH president.
The Inside Story:
KANE FARABAUGH, VOA Correspondent:
Hello, and welcome to The Inside Story. I’m VOA Midwest Correspondent Kane Farabaugh and we’re here in Milwaukee, in the Midwest state of Wisconsin, one of the swing states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
Every four years, the U.S. presidential race zeroes in on “swing states.” These so-called “battlegrounds”, unlike most states that consistently favor one party, can flip between elections and often determine who wins the White House.
With just a few states typically in play, campaigns pour resources into these crucial arenas.
Their electoral votes frequently decide the outcome, making them the focus of intense campaigning.
Unidentified Narrator:
What is a swing state? A state that has nearly equal support for the Democratic and Republican candidate, making it difficult to predict who will win the popular vote.
Why are swing states important? Presidential campaigns focus their time and resources on the swing states because the winning candidate in each current swing state receives all of the state’s Electoral College votes, which ultimately determine the winner of the presidential election.
How are swing states determined? Historical voting patterns are a major component in determining an election’s swing state status, but other factors can also include political trends, opinion polls, recent developments, the strengths and weaknesses of candidates, demographics and the birthplaces of the presidential and vice presidential candidates.
What are the likely swing states for 2024 and how many electoral votes does each have? Arizona has 11, Florida 30, Georgia 16, Michigan 15, Nevada 6, North Carolina 16, Wisconsin 10 and Pennsylvania 19.
How many swing states did Donald Trump win in 2016? Trump won six swing states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
How many swing states did Joe Biden win in 2020? Biden won six swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Are there other names for swing states? Swing states are referred to as battleground states or purple states. The purple is a reference to the combination of the colors of the two political parties — red for the Republican Party and blue for the Democratic Party.
How many U.S. states have close presidential elections? According to a World Population Review report, the most recent presidential campaigns reveal the existence of several “perennial” swing states with close results multiple times: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is one of three states in the Midwest both Republicans and Democrats view as critical to their Presidential campaigns, and there is one issue above all others on the minds of most voters.
When VOA met Wisconsin restaurant owner Gonzalo Perez in 2017, he expected a big boost in business.
Gonzalo Perez, Restaurant Owner:
It’s my lottery ticket.
KANE FARABAUGH:
That’s because Taiwanese company Foxconn planned to build a massive flat screen manufacturing facility not far away, employing as many as 13,000 workers Perez thought might frequent his restaurant. But Perez’s dreams, and FoxConn’s plans, didn’t meet reality. Today, FoxConn’s scaled-back southern Wisconsin facility employs fewer than 1,000 people.
Gonzalo Perez, Restaurant Owner:
The promise never was done.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Instead of a busy restaurant filled with customers, Perez is dealing with empty tables, staff shortages, and rising costs due to inflation.
Gonzalo Perez, Restaurant Owner:
The economy is really bad for us.
Bob Wittke, Wisconsin State Representative:
I think that the real key when people go to vote in many cases is, how do I deal with rising costs?
KANE FARABAUGH:
Bob Wittke is a Republican representative in Wisconsin’s state assembly whose current district is near both Perez’s restaurant and the FoxConn facility. While the economy is a top issue for voters, he hears even more frustration with what they see as a lack of bipartisan cooperation among lawmakers.
Bob Wittke, Wisconsin State Representative:
That we don’t work together. I hear from both parties. We’re not getting anything done.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Nick Ramos is the executive director of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, which he says is a bipartisan organization dedicated to “good government” in Wisconsin. The organization recently participated in a successful effort to change state legislative district maps in Wisconsin. Voters he talks to express concern about the future of U.S. democracy.
Nick Ramos, Wisconsin Democracy Campaign:
My hope is that no matter who ends up taking the Oval Office, it will be somebody that actually engages the people, and actually wants to try and do everything to not only safeguard Democracy but find ways to make it better.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Wisconsin is a state as divided as any in the country, but what both Democrats and Republicans here can agree on is that succeeding in the presidential election in this state in November depends on how well they can get their voters to turn out.
Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
So Wisconsin, today I ask you, are you ready to get to work?
KANE FARABAUGH:
Recent polling in Wisconsin indicates Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow lead over Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
A vote for Trump is a vote to save Wisconsin and is a vote to save your country.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Restaurant owner Gonzalo Perez hasn’t attended political events and hasn’t met either candidate.
Gonzalo Perez, Restaurant Owner:
Lifestyle never changes, it doesn’t matter who gets in. I go to keep working 7 days a week, same schedule, I pay taxes regular(ly), I don’t see (any) benefit.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Perez says one thing above all will determine how he’ll make his decision.
Gonzalo Perez, Restaurant Owner:
Sometimes I vote for whoever is going to be a change.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Immigration is one of the top issues for U.S. voters this November as they decide who will occupy the White House, and there is a dramatic difference in policy between the two candidates. VOA senior Washington correspondent Carolyn Presutti takes us to a dusty desert outpost in Arizona.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI, VOA senior Washington Correspondent:
Immigration is one of the top issues for U.S. voters this November as they decide who will occupy the White House. The difference in policy between the two presidential candidates is stark. VOA’s senior Washington correspondent, Carolyn Presutti, begins our story at a dusty desert stop in Arizona.
Patti Burris, Voting for Trump:
This was a gold mining town, the richest strike in the state of Arizona at the time.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Now — a ghost town.
Patti Burris lives here with Beano, her 38-year-old donkey.
Patti Burris, Voting for Trump:
Hi Beano, there you go.
Burris says she is tired of undocumented migrants sneaking across her land from the Mexican border. Former President Donald Trump gets her vote.
Patti Burris, Voting for Trump:
He’s going to deport them! Yes, I’m all for that. Absolutely, get them out of here and he can do it. He knows how.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
While president, Donald Trump ordered that a 740-kilometer wall be built at the U.S. southwestern border. This is the Arizona part of it. On his first day in office, Joe Biden paused any new construction.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
We could have had it completed in three weeks.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Donald Trump returned to an Arizona border wall last Thursday, although The Washington Post reports the section he visited was built before he became president.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
There’s never been a border like this in the whole world that’s leaked like this border. All of those millions and millions of criminals coming through.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Democratic voters at their convention say their party is more tolerant.
Sandra Kano, Voting for Harris:
Immigrants, we belong. The neighbors, we take care of each other. That’s really what it’s all about.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
If elected, Vice President Kamala Harris promises a path to citizenship and the return of a bipartisan immigration bill that died in Congress.
Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
The Border Patrol endorsed it. But Donald Trump believes a border deal would hurt his campaign. So, he ordered his allies in Congress to kill the deal.
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Back at the ghost town….
Patti Burris, Voting for Trump:
Don’t believe a word she says. Where’s she been in the last four years?
CAROLYN PRESUTTI:
Nobody stops by the old deserted town much anymore. Burris says she’d like to go back to the time when she saw more tourists come through than migrants.
Carolyn Presutti, VOA News, Pearce, Arizona.
KANE FARABAUGH:
The voters of Northampton County in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania have chosen the victor of all but three U.S. presidential elections since 1920. VOA’s chief national correspondent Steve Herman looks at the landscape for Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump in this bellwether county.
STEVE HERMAN, VOA Chief National Correspondent:
Northampton County, Pennsylvania, has often found itself at the core of the United States’ industrial revolutions — and its political evolutions.
Its city of Easton was one of the three places where the Declaration of Independence was first read to the public.
Bethlehem, once synonymous with industrial might, is now a tourist destination, with such events as Musikfest, which drew more than 1 million attendees this year. [[source:
It’s a much more uplifting tune for the city and its voters following the blues of two decades ago, when former industrial titan Bethlehem Steel was dissolved and sold.
Samuel Chen, Republican Strategist:
China’s in the steel business now, and they want to know, what are these candidates going to do to bring those jobs back or to rebuild America?”
STEVE HERMAN:
Northampton County has the uncanny ability to select the winners of presidential elections, having chosen all but three since 1920.
Christopher Borick, Muhlenberg College:
What really makes it, I think, magical, in its ability to predict what happens in the state and nationally is its mix.
STEVE HERMAN:
In that mix — farmers, suburbanites, new residents from New York and Philadelphia, and a growing Hispanic population.
Samuel Chen, Republican Strategist:
The hard-core Republicans and the hard-core Democrats, they’re so even in their numbers — the Democrats have a little bit of an edge there — that small percentage of people who are willing to swing are going to decide that election time and time and time again.
STEVE HERMAN:
And that is why this is known as Swing County, USA – where there’s still a significant percentage of voters who split their ballots between parties and prioritize issues over personalities.
Rachel Lowell, Northampton County voter:
Being the president is a job. And so we care more about, ‘Is the job going to get done?’
STEVE HERMAN:
That’s Rachel Lowell, a new mother, concerned about women’s rights and environmental policies.
Mick O’Hearn sees the majority of the county supporting the Democrats for a second consecutive presidential election.
Mick O’Hearn, Northampton County Voter:
From talking to people who I know voted for Trump in the last election, they’re not going to vote for him this time around because they’re saying that they’re kind of tired of it.
STEVE HERMAN:
Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris is not going to get Wayne Jones’ vote because, he says, former President Donald Trump is tougher on stopping illegal migration.
Wayne Jones, Northampton County Voter:
If I had to choose right now, Trump hands down. I mean, letting all these people cross the border?
STEVE HERMAN:
With Northampton County on a red-hot streak as the nation’s political bellwether, the Trump and Harris campaigns will keep hammering away here until Election Day.
Steve Herman, VOA News, Northampton County, Pennsylvania.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Early voting for the presidential election in the southern state of Georgia began October 15th. Polls in this year’s race consistently show a close contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, which is why both campaigns are trying to reach as many potential voters as possible.
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and vice presidential nominee JD Vance shared the stage at a recent dinner, a show of Republican Party unity after years of discord between Kemp and former President Donald Trump.
Dorothy Harpe, Georgia Voter:
We’re looking to start all over.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Atlanta voter Dorothy Harpe is not concerned about Trump’s feud with Kemp over the 2020 election, which Trump falsely says he won in Georgia. She is more concerned about the economy.
Dorothy Harpe, Georgia Voter:
We had lower prices on our food, gas, energy costs. Everything was better under the Trump administration.
KANE FARABAUGH:
It’s a message Harpe takes door-to-door, encouraging members of her community to vote.
Dorothy Harpe, Georgia Voter:
And I’ve got a lot of young voters who say they are going to vote for Trump.
KANE FARABAUGH:
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden defeated Trump in Georgia by just over 11,000 votes out of nearly 5 million cast … numbers Georgia’s Republican Governor Kemp knows well as he implored audience members, including Harpe, to vote.
Brian Kemp, Georgia Governor:
We cannot take anything for granted. We cannot take our foot off the gas.
Andre Dickens, Atlanta Mayor:
Georgia is fully in play again.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens – a Democrat – says polls show another close race this year between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
Andre Dickens, Atlanta Mayor:
People sometimes get disenfranchised by thinking that their vote doesn’t matter, but we have to go out there and make sure that everyone knows that their vote does matter.
Elijah Grace, New Georgia Action Fund:
Listen – Every. Vote. Counts.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Elijah Grace is with the voter advocacy organization the New Georgia Project Action Fund, whose workers go door-to-door to promote voter registration.
Elijah Grace, New Georgia Project Action Fund:
We specialize in targeting black and brown people across the state, making sure they have the resources needed to cast their ballot.
KANE FARABAUGH:
A 2020 Pew Research Center study showed Georgia’s eligible Black voting population made up a third of the state’s total electorate. Exit polls in 2020 showed 88% of Black voters chose Biden. But recent polls show Democrats losing ground in this close contest.
Elijah Grace, New Georgia Project Action Fund:
Both sides understand that roads lead through Georgia.
KANE FARABAUGH:
When the race was between Biden and Trump, Grace noticed a lack of enthusiasm among potential voters.
Elijah Grace, New Georgia Project Action Fund:
Since the Democratic ticket has changed, we have seen strong uptick in support for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Bernice King, King Center CEO:
She’s at the intersection of color and gender.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Bernice King, daughter of civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., believes Harris appeals to voters previously considering sitting on the sidelines.
Bernice King, King Center CEO:
Frankly, just speaking as a woman, I think this is a season where we see more and women emerging in critical places of leadership.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Leadership is motivating Harpe to back Trump, and she’s working to bring others along with her as Republicans focus on inflation and cost-of-living concerns.
Dorothy Harpe, Georgia Voter:
I have already committed to taking so many people I know to the poll. I say, if you don’t have a way to get there, I’ll get you there.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Polls open in Georgia for early voting on October 15.
There are seven so-called battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. While some have shifted politically over the years, the Western swing state of Nevada does not lean strongly toward one party or the other. VOA’s Dora Mekouar reports from Las Vegas.
DORA MEKOUAR, VOA Correspondent:
Nevada — home to 3.1 million people — is probably best known for Las Vegas — its most famous city, also known as Sin City.
Nevada reliably voted Republican from the late 1960s until the early 2000s. Since then, the state regularly swings between the two political parties.
Nevada’s population has more than tripled since 1980. Many recent newcomers are from predominantly liberal California.
Ken Miller, University of Nevada, Las Vegas:
What’s happened is that Clark County, which is the county where Las Vegas sits, is now 72% of the voting population in this state. So, what has happened to Nevada is what was once a rural Mountain West state has become an urban West Coast state.
David Cardenas, Nevada Resident:
There’s Vegas and then there’s the rest of Nevada. And from my knowledge, Vegas tends to be more on the Democrat side, whereas the rest of Nevada is more Republican. But then again, most of the population is in Vegas.
DORA MEKOUAR:
Despite the population explosion, Nevada remains heavily working-class, with many residents working manual jobs.
Ken Miller, University of Nevada, Las Vegas:
So things like wages, things like unemployment, things like housing affordability, just inflation in general. So things like fuel prices, all of those things affect people a little bit more here in Nevada than they might some other states.
DORA MEKOUAR:
College students at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas outlined their top issues. Some will be voting for the first time now that they’ve reached the voting age of 18.
Samantha Adame, Nevada Resident:
Definitely abortion, definitely the economy. What else? Education as well.
David Cardenas, Nevada Resident:
The state of the economy. Probably just the border.
Charles Davis, Nevada Resident:
I’m kind of a broke college kid. I would, I would just like to be able to better afford food. I would like to be able to have a single job that pays enough to help me with all my needs.
DORA MEKOUAR:
When they vote in November’s general election, Nevadans will also vote on whether to install a right to abortion in the state constitution.
Rebecca Gill, Women’s Research Institute of Nevada:
The issue overall has already proven to be a big driver, a big motivator, of turnout in prior elections. And I think this one would be no different.
DORA MEKOUAR:
Still, Miller says no one should underestimate former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning Nevada.
Ken Miller, University of Nevada, Las Vegas:
I think that Trump is being perceived as a candidate unlikely to win Nevada simply because he hasn’t won the last two times. I wouldn’t discount the importance of economic issues as driving the decision for voters in this state.
Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
Good evening Nevada!
DORA MEKOUAR:
Nevada’s critical role as a battleground state is why both presidential nominees – Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris — are spending time here. Because, ultimately, what happens in Vegas, could determine who will lead America for the next four years.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
You’re fired. Get out!
DORA MEKOUAR:
Dora Mekouar, VOA News, Las Vegas
KANE FARABAUGH:
Michigan is another critical state in the Midwest United States both candidates view as a must in in the November election. Each campaign is organizing “get out the vote” drives to ensure their supporters turn out. VOA White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara has more from Grand Rapids, Michigan.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA, VOA White House Bureau Chief:
JamnBean owner Doug Lee is serving up more than ice cream.
He is also handing out Donald Trump yard signs here in suburban Grand Rapids.
Doug Lee, Trump Supporter:
And those signs come to us for free, what they want in lieu of free is they want us to sign up for Trump.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
He says volunteering for the Trump campaign is motivated by patriotism.
Doug Lee, Trump Supporter:
I love this country, and many people do. There’s an effort to divide this country. We are in a civil war.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Fifteen kilometers away at the Kent County Democrats headquarters, a training for volunteers to make phone calls…
John Mitchell, Democratic Party Volunteer:
Hi my name is John Mitchell, I’m with the Democratic Party at Kent County.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
… to get people out to vote on Election Day.
Joel Ombrey, Kent County Democrats:
2016 was very close. 2020 was very close. And to me, anyway, there’s no indication that 2024 is going to be any different.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Volunteers are key to winning in Michigan. Democrats say they are confident.
Lavora Barnes, Michigan Democratic Party Chairperson:
The number of folks who’ve been active and will continue to be active in our campaign is one of the largest I’ve seen since I’ve been at the party.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Republicans also express confidence.
Pete Hoekstra, Michigan Republican Party Chairperson:
We are hitting tens of thousands of doors per week. It’s a phenomenal ground game. It’s something that I haven’t seen in the state at this scale ever.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
Michigan is a battleground state that could swing for either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump.
Corwin Smidt, Michigan State University:
Every voting block is key in a tight election. There are certain voting blocks that we assume that one party is going to do well with, but you need definitely to make sure that you get their votes. So, for instance, Democrats need to make sure that they get a firm, a large portion of the African American vote in the state. Republicans need to make sure they get a large portion of the evangelical vote in the state.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:P
With 15 electoral votes to contribute to the minimum 270 to win, it’s no wonder that Michigan is heavily courted by both candidates, who are virtually tied in the polls. Harris visited Michigan four times since becoming the Democratic nominee in July. Trump has been in the state nine times this election cycle, five times in the last month alone.
In a town hall in Flint last week, he focused on cheap electric vehicle imports from China, a concern to many Michigan auto workers.
Donald Trump, Republican Presidential Nominee:
If I don’t win, you will have no auto industry. Within two to three years, it’ll all be gone. And I know you got a little bit of an increase. It doesn’t mean – that’s the small stuff because it’s just a temporary thing – because you will not have any manufacturing plants.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
The United Automobile Workers labor union is a key political force in the state and has endorsed Harris.
But she faces headwinds from Arab Americans angry over the war in Gaza.
Michigan has the nation’s largest percentage of Arab Americans.
In Detroit last week, Harris did not address Gaza. She highlighted Republican efforts to restrict abortion, which has been a winning issue for Democrats.
Kamala Harris, Democratic Presidential Nominee:
Certain people who are in these statehouses and then starting with the former president of United States think they’re in a better position than a doctor or a nurse to determine when their patient needs medical care.
PATSY WIDAKUSWARA:
For both campaigns, winning Michigan means turning out their regular supporters and winning over the small number of voters who say they are still undecided.
Patsy Widakuswara and Rivan Dwiastono, VOA News, Grand Rapids, Michigan.
KANE FARABAUGH:
One county here in the state of Wisconsin plays a disproportionate role in deciding whether Democrats or Republicans win the White House in November. VOA’s Veronica Balderas Iglesias takes us to Dane County, one that is not just growing in size, but also in political influence.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS, VOA Correspondent:
Winning the “swing state” of Wisconsin could tip the Democratic or Republican presidential nominee into to the White House.
In both 2016 and 2020, the state was won by fewer than one percentage point of the vote.
While most counties in Wisconsin lean conservative,
Dane, the state’s second largest county and home of the University of Wisconsin, is a liberal stronghold.
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris is expected to win here, but it’s the number of votes she garners that matters.
Mike Wagner, University of Wisconsin-Madison:
If she can overperform in Dane County with voter turnout, the margin of victory is going to be so large that it might be enough to carry her over the finish line.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
The conservative presence in this fast-growing county can also be mined by former President Donald Trump’s campaign, Wagner says.
Mike Wagner, University of Wisconsin-Madison:
This state is going to come down to 20 to 40,000 votes. // If he can encourage one or two or 3,000 more people to vote here, that might be enough to offset some losses he’s having in the suburbs.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
Aiming for high voter turnout in November, both the Democratic and the Republican parties tailor their messaging to appeal to their supporters here in Dane county.
The county’s Democratic Party bets on the premise that voters don’t want to go, quote, “backwards”.
Alexia Sabor, Dane County Democratic Party Chair:
The preservation of democracy is a really important issue and access to reproductive health care.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
The Republican messaging focuses on the economy.
Brian Schimming, Wisconsin Republican Party Chairman:
The choice is between Donald Trump, who was a proven economic success as president, and Kamala Harris, who is, with Joe Biden, a proven failure.
VERONICA BALDERAS IGLESIAS:
Democrats dispute that assessment.
Meanwhile, most Dane county voters have likely made up their minds on who they’ll vote for, researchers say.
With the race so tight, parties will continue courting undecided voters in Dane County and beyond, in the hopes that their votes make a difference in the state’s race and possibly the presidential one.
Veronica Balderas Iglesias, VOA News, Dane county, Wisconsin.
KANE FARABAUGH:
Thanks for joining us on the Inside Story.
You can connect with us on Instagram and Facebook @voanews.
You can also visit our website any time at voanews.com.
Catch up on past episodes at our free streaming service, VOA Plus.
I’m Kane Farabaugh, and we’ll see you next week on The Inside Story.
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