THE 10 BEST GAMES TO BET
BENGALS at GIANTS
8:20 p.m., Bengals by 3 ½, 48 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: On face value, this would be a Giants bet. Their defense is looking nasty, and Daniel Jones is getting more comfortable. Cincy’s defense stinks. But the Giants might be feeling a bit too good about themselves after last week’s upset in Seattle, where it was the Seahawks who were in a bad spot. This week, it’s the Giants’ turn, sandwiched between that win and next week’s rivalry game against the Eagles, facing a desperate non-conference opponent. The Bengals are not as bad as their record, and, at 1-4, this is probably their last chance to turn things around. Don’t count out Joe Burrow in a last-ditch effort. And do bet the over. That’s almost a weekly lock with the Bengals.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bengals and the over.
BILLS at JETS
Monday, 8:15 p.m., Bills by 3, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It seems to happen every year. A coach gets fired and the team plays its best game of the season under the new man. Considering that Aaron Rodgers may have been turning cartwheels in his living room over the ouster of Robert Saleh, it’s logical that the Jets will continue the trend. As for the Bills, our apologies for picking them last week before the worst display of clock management since Rutgers played Princeton in 1869 when there was no clock. Josh Allen doesn’t have a No. 1 receiver right now, but the Bills are still a pass-first team. The Jets can shut down the run while their secondary sits back and waits for the inevitable interception.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Jets and the under.
JAGUARS vs BEARS in LONDON
9:30 a.m., Bears by 1 ½, 44 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Jaguars have made London a second home, especially Trevor Lawrence, who has thrown for 974 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions while winning three of his four starts SU. But Lawrence hasn’t played a London game with a defense this poor. The Jags finally broke into the win column last week against the Colts, but gave up 447 yards in doing so. Caleb Williams is making progress each week and after facing the Panthers’ overmatched D on Sunday, he gets one just as bad. London games trend toward the under. The Bears’ total yardage numbers have been impressive but don’t match their scoring output and their pass rush and secondary play is as good as Lawrence and the Jags have seen.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bears and the under.
TEXANS at PATRIOTS
1 p.m., Texans by 7, 38
HANK’S HONEYS: With Nico Collins on the sidelines for Houston and Drake Maye starting his first game for the Patriots, how can you not bet the under, regardless of how low? The Patriots are a grind it out team to start with, and Jerod Mayo is going to devise a game plan to keep Maye in more comfortable situations. The Texans’ offense has been misfiring on early downs. It misses Joe Mixon and it keeps committing penalties. That has taken C.J. Stroud out of his rhythm. That could change in one week, of course, especially against a struggling team like New England. But with underdogs of six or more points an astounding 16-2-1 ATS this year, this isn’t a game to buck the trend.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Patriots and the under.
RAVENS at COMMANDERS
1 p.m., Ravens by 6 ½, 52 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: Run to the window and bet the over. Both teams are scoring at a 29 ppg pace and are 4-1 to the over. As for the side, there’s been a big line movement once it opened at five, probably figuring that the Ravens are now on track and that the Commanders’ bubble is about to burst. But let’s look at this Baltimore defense since losing Mike Macdonald, its defensive coordinator. It hasn’t been that great and, in fact, only six teams have allowed more points so far, mostly because of a bottom third coverage unit. We’re done doubting Jayden Daniels, and after what C.J. Stroud did as a rookie last season, there’s no reason to believe his success won’t continue.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Commanders and the over.
COLTS at TITANS
1 p.m., Colts by 1 ½, 42 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: This just comes down to defense. The Titans have it and the Colts do not. They are last in the NFL, surrendering 419 yards per game, and while Will Levis and the Tennessee offense can be a self-destructive mess, but the way the Colts tackle, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears should be able to carry the load. There’s a chance Anthony Richardson returns this week but that doesn’t move the needle. The Colts are a big play team when Richardson is in there, but the Titans are among the best in the league at taking them away. Besides, the Colts’ best big play receiver, Michael Pittman, has already been ruled out with a back injury.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Titans and the under.
BUCS at SAINTS
1 p.m., Bucs by 2 ½, 41 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: The Saints’ red-hot start seems ages ago. Now Derek Carr will be joining Taysom Hill on the sidelines with an oblique injury, leaving New Orleans with a rookie QB against a blitz-happy defense. The Saints scored 12 and 13 points in the two games Hill has missed and that was with Carr under center. The Bucs should be able to shut things down just by focusing on Alvin Kamara. Baker Mayfield has a 9-2 ATS road record as a Buc. Tampa Bay will be well rested off its bye and ready to bounce back from its Week 5 loss to the Falcons.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Bucs and the under.
CHARGERS at BRONCOS
4:05 p.m., Chargers by 3, 36
HANK’S HONEYS: The Chargers are coming off a much-needed bye, allowing Justin Herbert to rest his ankle and their two offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, to nurse their injuries. You have to like what Jim Harbaugh has been doing with his game plans and the extra week gives him more time to scheme against the Broncos’ surprisingly good defense. Denver, however, has a lot of injury concerns along its offensive line. Joey Bosa’s status is still up in the air, but Khalil Mack can do some damage by himself. These are two of the top-ranked defenses and two of the lowest-scoring offenses in the league, making the under the pick.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Chargers and the under.
LIONS at COWBOYS
4:25 p.m., Lions by 3, 52 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: It’s an easy over bet. The Lions trend that way every week and they should have no trouble putting up points against the Cowboys’ beat-up defense. Yes, they came up big in Pittsburgh, but the Lions aren’t the Steelers. They should own the matchups, especially David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs against the Cowboys 24th-ranked run defense. They are fully healthy coming off their bye week and thrive on fast indoor tracks like this. Dan Campbell is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite, while the Cowboys have failed to cover in four straight home games.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Lions and the over
FALCONS at PANTHERS
4:25 p.m., Falcons by 6 ½, 47 ½
HANK’S HONEYS: As bad as the Panthers have been, this is a bad spot for the Falcons, who have been pulling out some pretty big games, with a lot of luck along the way. It’s going to be easy to look past the Panthers. Plus, Betting 101 tells us to take the divisional home underdog with this many points. In fact, Carolina is 4-1 as a divisional home dog since ’22 regardless of the spread. And what are the Falcons SU on the road over that same span? An awful 4-13. Andy Dalton gives Carolina at least the semblance of an NFL quarterback and Chuba Hubbard can pick up yards against the NFL’s fourth-worst run defense. While we’ve been happily fading the Panthers every week for a 4-1 payout, the points look too tempting.
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Panthers and the under.
LOOK BUT DON’T TOUCH
CARDINALS at PACKERS
1 p.m., Packers by 5 ½, 50
HANK’S HONEYS: The Cardinals are too inconsistent and unpredictable to bet either way, no matter what the point spread may be. The smarter play is the over. Both offensive units are better than their opposing defensive units with top tier quarterbacks on both sides. Matt LaFleur has been out-scheming the opposition almost every week and with Romeo Doubs back from his suspension, Jordan Love should have his way. The question is can Kyler Murray keep up? Matthew Stafford moved the ball on the Packers last week without his main weapons. Murray, a dual threat with a better running game, has the ability to do the same and make this a dogfight.
CAN’T HELP YOURSELF?: Cardinals and the over.
BEST OF THE REST
BROWNS at EAGLES
1 p.m., Eagles by 8 ½, 43 ½
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Eagles and the under.
STEELERS at RAIDERS
4:05 p.m., Steelers by 3, 37
IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the over.
* * *
WEEK’S BEST BET: Bucs. A no brainer without Carr.
LAST WEEK: 7-7, 5-9 over/under
OVERALL: 34-42-2, 42-35-1 over/under
BEST BETS: 2-3
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