Formula 1’s sprint races tend to be processional affairs which serve only to diminish the intrigue ahead of the main event by giving an early glimpse of how each car performs.
But Formula One Management insists everyone loves them so they’re seemingly here to stay. Moreover, F1 is especially fond of scheduling them at the end of seasons, so half this year’s sprint events take place over the final half-dozen rounds.
This is a new situation for F1 since sprint races were introduced three years ago. That year, when the title fight went down to the final round, there was only one sprint race during the last six rounds and it awarded far fewer points. The 2022 and 2023 drivers’ titles were clinched well before the final round.
Today the drivers’ championship is still open and is tightening up, though is not yet close. However the presence of three sprint races in the decisive final six rounds means the picture is different than what we might have seen in previous years.
Firstly, they complicate the championship arithmetic. Instead of knowing each round pays up to 26 points, three of the remaining events offer an extra eight each. The net effect is almost as if there were seven grands prix remaining instead of six.
Does it therefore follow that the championship situation is closer than it initially appears? Taking the two drivers who are closest to each other at the top of the standings, Lando Norris is 52 points adrift of Max Verstappen, and while six grands prix would ordinarily offer up to 156 points, the addition of three sprint races bumps that up to 180.
Surely that means the three sprint races increase the chances of Norris, who has had the quicker car for the last seven consecutive races, taking the championship fight down to the final round? After all, he only needs to halve Verstappen’s lead in order to have the slimmest outside chance in Abu Dhabi.
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That would mean out-scoring Verstappen by 26 points over five rounds including three sprint races; Norris has taken exactly that many points off him over the last four rounds with no sprint races.
However there is one mathematical reason why the extra sprint races don’t offer Norris as much help as it might at first seem. Yes, there are more points available for winning, but sprint races reward some of the lower finishing positions more generously.
For example (ignoring the largely arbitrary bonus point for fastest lap) if Norris wins a grand prix and scores 25 points, the best Verstappen can take is 18, or 72% of his rival’s score. However if Norris wins a sprint race, taking eight points, second place would give Verstappen seven, which is 87.5%. In other words, although sprint races offer Norris more points-scoring chances, his opportunities to cut Verstappen’s lead is not as great.
Then there is the simpler matter of form. Verstappen has won all six sprint races so far this year, though they all took place earlier in the season when the Red Bull was more competitive.
But leaving the mathematics and the theory to one side, what practical effect will the presence of three sprint races over the final six rounds have on the title fight?
The four races after the summer break showed McLaren had a clear but often slim advantage over most of their rivals. High-downforce circuits like Singapore play to their strengths but there are none of those left on the schedule.
Red Bull have begun to solve the problems which plagued their RB20. They made gains in Baku but a set-up error compromised Verstappen on race day. His second place in Singapore was an encouraging result for them, at a venue where they struggled last year.
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Given the choice, would Red Bull prefer the extra points-scoring opportunities offered by the sprint races or the practice sessions they replace? Undoubtedly it’s the latter, so the composition of the final rounds has to be regarded as an advantage for Norris.
On top of that the McLaren driver believes his team has been especially strong in nailing its set-ups for the start of race weekends. “We’re always pretty good at that,” he said on Friday in Singapore. “I think one of our strengths is just arriving and performing well, but then we tend not to progress as much as some of the other teams.”
That may matter less in the sprint rounds to come at Austin next week, then Interlagos and Losail. The latter decided last year’s world championship, but if the title is wrapped up that early this time it will be because something has gone wrong for Norris, who must keep chipping away at Verstappen’s lead to have a chance of overhauling it.
The championship fight with nine races remaining
Only the top seven drivers in the championship are still mathematically capable of winning it:
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